Stitching A Broken Future
📝 Executive Summary
This project investigates how informal RMG subcontractors in Dhaka adapted to the COVID-19 crisis using innovative strategies and foresight. It identifies six key drivers of change and uses a visual scenario framework to map industry resilience and vulnerability. By applying methods like Backcasting and the Future Triangle, it offers alternative futures for the sector. The research reveals invisible dynamics within undocumented business units and aims to ignite critical dialogue rather than provide conclusions.
🎯 Objective
The research aimed to evaluate how informal RMG subcontractors adapted to the pandemic using resilient business strategies and foresight methods. The goal was to identify innovations and build an intervention framework that could reveal blind spots, opportunities, and leverage points.
📅 Project Snapshot
Project Type: Academic Research
Timeline: Sept 1, 2020 – Apr 14, 2021
Team: Individual Project
Researcher: Shahria Khan
Contribution: 100%
🔍 Context of the Crisis
In March 2020, Bangladesh reported its first COVID-19 case. Within weeks, international orders worth billions were canceled, leading to mass layoffs (2.2 million job losses) and historic revenue drops. While the government announced a $11.2B stimulus, it was only available to member factories, leaving informal subcontractors unsupported.
🏭 Focus of the Study
This study examined informal subcontractors in Dhaka with fewer than 1,000 workers and no membership in any trade body. These invisible, undocumented actors are usually excluded from mainstream narratives, making them a critical subject for studying innovation under crisis.
🔬 Methodology
Evidence was categorized using shape, size, color, and character to map strength, source, type, and polarity. This method visualized driving forces and clustered related insights for better clarity.
⚙️ Six Drivers of Innovation
The six most influential drivers uncovered were:
Identity
Leadership
Production
Policy
Process
Partnership
These drivers are crucial in both facilitating and obstructing recovery, revealing vulnerabilities and opportunities alike.
📈 Scenario Design Method
The Multi-single variable method (Inayatullah, 2008) was chosen to explore alternate futures. Each innovation driver served as a variable to generate a range of future scenarios.
🗺️ Visual Mapping Technique
A hybrid of The Futures Triangle and Backcasting was used to develop a visual framework on an X-Y axis:
X-axis: 5 years before to 5 years after the crisis
Y-axis: Recovery stages of the industry
Key deflection points, surprises, and blind spots were mapped, revealing temporal shifts.
🔮 Scenario Building
Using Peter Schwartz’s four-scenario model (renamed for neutrality), the following were conceptualized:
Scissors Cut: Industry fails to bounce back.
Double Needles: Crisis weakens finances but not morale.
Feather Stitch: The industry unites and evolves.
These futures were built using qualitative insights from participant interviews
These opinions are not meant to guide readers to a conclusion. Instead, they are about stimulating more questions than answers. Readers may utilize the following discussion as an anchor point for commencing dialogues within and outside the subcontracting industry.
